non-costant growth下第三年price折现值如何计算？

老师您好，

我想请问为什么最后的估值结果是前三年的dividends折现值和第三年的price折现值，估值不应该全都是price的折现吗，为什么前三年只是dividends的折现值？

谢谢老师

Valuation for M&A 2021-10-15 14:53:58

问题来源：

Non-Constant Growth

The DVM model can be adapted to value dividends that are forecast to go through two phases:

Phase 1 (eg next two years)

Phase 2 (eg Year 3 onwards)

• Growth is forecast at an unusually high (or low) rate

• Growth returns to a constant rate

Use a normal NPV approach to calculate the present value of the dividends in this phase.

1. Use formula to assess the NPV of the constant growth phase; however the time periods need to be adapted eg:

P₀=d₀(1+g)/(Ke-g)

Is adapted to P₂= d₂(1+g)/(Ke-g)

2. Then adjust the value given above by discounting back to a present value (here using a T₂ discounting rate).

Hitman Co's latest dividend was $5 million. It is estimated to have a cost of equity of 8%.

Required

Use the DVM to value Hitman Co assuming 3% growth for the next three years and 2% growth after this.

Phase 1

Phase 2

$说明: C:\Users\WANGRU~1\AppData\Local\Temp\ksohtml7664\wps9.jpg$ is adapted to $说明: C:\Users\WANGRU~1\AppData\Local\Temp\ksohtml7664\wps10.jpg$

$说明: C:\Users\WANGRU~1\AppData\Local\Temp\ksohtml7664\wps11.jpg$ = $说明: C:\Users\WANGRU~1\AppData\Local\Temp\ksohtml7664\wps12.jpg$ $92.83m

Then discounting at a time - 3 discount factor of 0.794 = $92.83 × 0.794 = $73.71m

Total Phase 1+ Phase 2 =

Total = $13.65m + $73.71m = $87.36m

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迟老师

2021-10-16 08:54:58 684人浏览

勤奋刻苦的同学，您好：

因为前三年不是永续增长的，后面是永续增长的，因此第三年的price折现值，也就是后面永续增长的折现值，需要与第三年的DIV一起折现到起始点，前面因为不包含永续增长的折现值，因此只有DIV折现

每个努力学习的小天使都会有收获的，加油！

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